India under BJP has shown lack of strategos or divine spark for which Indian diplomacy was always famous for. Today under Hindutva government New Delhi has isolated itself in the region and in pursuit of catching American eyes distanced its self from its close allies like Russia and Iran. 

Indian love affair with U.S. and role in Indo Pacific strategy is not seen with affection by Russians who are coordinating with Chinese on different issues and are close like allies. 

India trying to maintain close relation with Russia and US is not possible in present scenario. US has threatened sanctions on India over S-400 purchase. Similarly trade conflict/ surge in tariffs is another snub to India by Americans. On other side Russia is advising India to mend relations with China.

Iran an important ally of India is slipping away. Due to U.S sanctions on Iran, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Iran and started looking towards GCC countries, all competitors of Iran. It also slashed Chahbahar budget from Rs 150 crore to Rs 45 crore. It shocked Iran and same Iran which was showing unfriendly gestures to Pakistan during last year Indo-Pak crisis started coming near to Pakistan.

 Tehran is also member of BRI project of China. Recently Russian, Chinese Navies participated in naval drills with Iranian navy. BRI is bringing Iran and china closer to each other which is perceived as threat by India and its new ally U.S.

 Modi Amit Shah Plan for NRC and protests against CAA are being criticized by India’s close friends like Prime Minister Hasina Wajid of Bangladesh and former Afghan president Hamid Karzai. Sowing seeds of  distrust Dilip Ghosh, president BJP East Bengal said in a rally on 20th Jan 2020 that “ [BJP]government is committed to implementing proposed nationwide NRC, will send back 10 million Bangladeshi Muslims living in West Bengal illegally”.

Noting pulse of BJP policy Bangladesh has joined BRI project. It has purchased submarines from China and Chinese are also building a submarine base for Bangladeshi Navy. If Dilip Ghosh threat materializes Bangladeshi Govt will have to react.

Another India’s neighbor is Nepal, it is a land locked country bordering both China and India. New Delhi traditionally like to dictate Katmandu because of its dependency on Indian routes for trade and supply. India blockaded Nepal in September 2015 resulting in humanitarian and economic crisis in Kathmandu. Recently Nepal signed agreement of constructing 70-km (42-mile) rail link with China, this will connect Gyiron in Tibet with Nepal’s capital Kathmandu. Nepal is also constructing 28-km (17 mile) road tunnel which will save more than half the distance from Kathmandu to the Chinese border, saving on time and cost. These links will give alternative to Nepal and allow Nepal to benefit from BRI.

Another Indian neighbor Bhutan, it is also not happy with Indian conduct during Doklam crisis of 2017. The disputed road which China was constructing was on Bhutanese territory. India over reacted for its interests and in end without considering Bhutan’s interests acted unilaterally, hence offending Bhutan. China and Bhutan are trying to resolve border issues and developing positive relations making India insecure, New Delhi fears Bhutan may join BRI making India more vulnerable.

India’s biggest fear is People Republic of China. Beijing is many times bigger and stronger in all the elements of national power. India considers China as an equal that’s why Indian FM Subrahmanyam Jaishankar talked about creating equilibrium with China. Beijing has boundary disputes with India and in 1962 both fought a war and then again came near to war during Sum Do Wrong chu or Twang crisis in 80’s.

China has effectively encircled India with his project of Belt and road initiative. Beijing with its soft power and apparently benevolent policy is winning countries after countries as its friend.  

China is ‘Iron brother of Pakistan’ helping Pakistan in nearly every important sector and also developing China Pakistan Economic Corridor which will be game changer for Pakistan and region. China stands with Pakistan on Kashmir dispute. Due to Sino-Pak close relations interpretability is developing between Pakistan army, Navy and Air force with PLA, PLAN and PLAF.

China has recently signed BRI agreement with Myanmar similar to CPEC. Beijing is expected to have Navel facility in Naypyitaw. Base in Burma will facilitate PLAN in Bay of Bengal.

 Indian navy is facing blunt of PLAN increasing activity in Indian Ocean region (IOR). First time Brahmos caring SU’s have been stationed in South India to counter Chinese navy. Recently PLAN concluded exercises with South African and Iranian and Pakistan navy.

Indian new ally, U.S. has nothing to offer regional countries equaling to BRI of China. U.S. Indo Pacific strategy has narrowed down to Quad. Quad is security dialogue between U.S., Japan, Australia and India. Surprisingly Tokyo has joined Belt and Road initiative meaning Chinese soft power has made its staunch rival Japan into its partner.

Internally BJP’s Hindutva agenda is destroying India’s secular foundations. Low caste Hindus and other minorities are at unease because impression is that after Muslims they will be targeted and prosecuted for “Hinduisation” of India.

 Modi Govt has changed Kashmir into world’s largest prison. Maoists or Naxilites are getting power and now have reached South India. Sikhs are demanding for Khalistan.  Economy is on decline. Poverty increasing but BJP is only interested in Hinduizing minorities or demonizing Pakistan to gather support. Only allies which BJP Govt will find today in India are Hindu extremists or Indian armed forces. 

BJP has effectively isolated India in the region. Today India is running out of allies in South Asia. U.S. president Donald Trump is giving favor to India by offering mediation.

Time is passing very fast and PM Khan has warned that situation in IOK can cause Indo-Pak war. FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi has rightly said ‘“The world must have its interests for considering India its commercial ally but it should not be silent on the prevailing situation in India giving due importance to people’s values,”