By the time this article gets to the readers, early birds would have already gone to queue the polling stations. A lot will depend for whom they vote, how they exercise their right of choosing the next party and how much critical issues of national importance weigh upon their conscience? As in the past, a big chunk of the voters is likely to vote on the basis of clans, local arm twisting and petty bribery. These traditional patterns will be confined to less than 20 percent of the electorate. The other 80 percent will vote for issues and change; hence, my hypothesis that the results on May 11 will be a surprise and out-of-the-box. The sweeping mandate will defy pseudo intellectuals and pundits of doom, who predict a hung Parliament.

This article is based on the premise that elections 2013 will be affected by hitherto unknown statistical data that shall impact results. What remains of the legacy of 2008 elections is a voter leftover of 44,027,567 after the removal of 37,186,053 unverifiable or bogus votes. This means that only 54 percent votes of the 2008 figure in the 2013 list. If seen against the overall voter turnout in 2008 at 43.6 percent, it means that a total of 34,980,069 votes were cast, slightly less than the unverifiable votes. Assuming that at least 50 percent of the unverifiable votes were cast as rigging, the turnout drops to 16,387,042 votes or 20.18 percent. Therefore, one critical figure to assume the party positions in 2013 will be the voter turnout factor of 0.20. As long as the turnout remains close to 20 percent, the old political parties will excel through their fixed vote banks. As the turnout rises, the old horses will be edged out.

Based on the statistic that all parties bagged 16,387,042 votes, their percentages can be calculated as, PPP 30.79 percent (5,045,570), PML-N 26.81 percent (4,393,365), PML-Q 23.12 percent (3,788,684), MQM 7.43 percent (1,217,557), MMA 2.21 percent (362,153), ANP 2.03 percent (332,656) and Independents 11.16 percent (18,287,938) votes. In terms of seats in the National Assembly (without factorising the reserved seats), this translates to PPP 91, PML-N 69, PML-Q 38, MQM 19, MMA 7, ANP 10 and Independents 20. Add the additional 64,826,578 votes in 2013 to get a stunning forecast.

In addition, while evaluating this hypothesis, following factors must be considered.

First, the traditional vote bank of PPP, which is not likely to waiver, is around 5,045,570 voters, but this is a mere 6.25 percent of the total new rolls. Therefore, as the turnout rises beyond 20 percent, so will the odds against the party.

Second, the policies of PPP in the past five years and failure to affirmatively capitalise on the Bhutto legacy will impact negatively in Punjab and KPK. In Sindh, it is still likely to emerge as the majority force. The combined candidates of PPP-PML-Q will give a tough contest to PML-N and PTI, yet fail to offset the inherent handicaps. Their combine strength of 129 in 2008 has already taken a major dent.

Third, due to inability to conduct campaign under threats of terrorism, PPP vote bank in KPK and Punjab is most likely to shrink. Of the nine seats it won in KPK in 2008, it may retain few. This factor also applies to ANP and MQM. But the party more likely to suffer is ANP. These allies will have to pay the cost of aligning with a corrupt government that shred Pakistan to sinews.

Fourth, in 2008, PML-N won the major chunk of its National Assembly seats from Punjab. Including the bogus votes, its total share of the turnout in 2008 was 19.6 percent. Excluding bogus, if we assume that its traditional vote bank of 4,393,365 is still intact, it only translates to 5.44 percent of the current voter lists. In 2008, the party cashed the sympathy factor of Benazir Bhutto. It won 63 seats in Punjab and six from other provinces. Punjab with 147 seats in a tri-directional contest and will reach a saturation directly related to the surge in voter turnout. Quadrupling its vote bank to 20 percent means a monumental challenge of bagging 20,181,002 votes that translates into much beyond the figure it bagged in 2008. The party will also be limited by its comparative showing in areas other than Punjab. Given the neck to neck fight, this increase is improbable.

Another factor that impacts predictive analysis of 2013 is that PTI, JI and PKMAP boycotted the 2008 elections and their voters had either abstained or voted for other parties.

In a total of 81,213,620 votes in Elections 2013, NADRA added an additional 36,696,442 that were originally not part of the voter lists. Excluding the turnout of 2008, this calculates to 64,826,578 (79.82 percent). These are Pakistanis, who have not voted in the past.

Recent surveys indicate that PTI is edging ahead of PML-N its closest rival in predictive surveys. Assuming that it will be the major beneficiary of the exclusion of unverified votes and inclusion of additional votes, a close contest is predicted up to 20 percent turnout; anything beyond will be an exponential success for PTI.

If the turnout is in the range of 20 percent, the combine of PTI, JI and PKMAP will equalise the mainstream parties of 2008. This translates to 136 National Assembly seats excluding reserved. In order to predict realistic outcomes, limitations like the weaker position of the parties in different provinces must be placed. PTI has its major strengths in Punjab and KPK that have a total of 195 seats excluding reserved. Also, consider that JI and PKMAP are contesting on limited seats. Hence, it can be predicted that at the above turnout, PTI will win between 70-80 seats with 10 seats going to JI and PKMAP. The PML-N, PPP, PML-Q and ANP are likely to compete with 100-115 seats.

A 40 percent turnout will eclipse the 2008 verifiable turnout of 16,387,042 votes by 40,362,004 votes or 246 percent. Even if half these votes go to PTI, the results will be in the range of 130-150 seats for PTI in the Khyber and Punjab regions. Add an additional 4-5 seats in Sindh and Balochistan and PTI will be edging closer to a two thirds majority.

Take the turnout to 50 percent and an entirely unpredictable scenario emerges. The PTI gets into the driving seat with 150-180 seats out of a house of 272, but this will be its saturation point. The metaphorical tsunami would have reached its high point.

Whatever the results, PTI will ultimately end 30-40 seats short of whatever it wins because of the lack of homework in Sindh, Balochistan and non-Muslims.

    The writer is a retired army officer, current affairs host on television and political economist.