n Ghani Jafar Since May 2, 2011, Pakistan has been in a state of undeclared, multi-pronged war. It is something of a pincer movement, with one flank being external to the country while the other is internal, but commanded by certain regional as also extra-regional powers. There is even after 42 days of the incident no convincing reason to believe that the May 2 raid conducted by the United States at a residential place in Abbottabad Cantonment did, a) take out Osama bin Laden, or, b) that it was conducted without the prior knowledge and/or approval of Pakistan. All that has come out so far suggests otherwise. The unfolding narrative has necessarily to be seen in the perspective of the divorce made by Islamabad consequent upon the capture of CIA operative Raymond Davis in Lahore on January 27 and his interrogation at the hands of the Punjab Police about which many South Asians share a joke. That has to do with how a certain stolen donkey of a village influential was 'recovered by the cops from this force in the form of a poor elephant shouting all the way on top of his voice from the wilderness to the habitation: I am that same donkey. So, this particular White elephant of ours sang like a canary after being feted by studs at the dingy Old Anarkali Police Station overnight. He compromised in the process not only his own mission, which was but one string of the covert war launched by the CIA to destabilise Pakistan, but also numerous cells of fifth columnists spread all over the country. That turned the tables on both America and its quislings within the Pakistani political and diplomatic echelons. All strategic decisions came under the firm grip of the military leadership. It still suited the latter to let the democratic circus go on. Having ended the marriage of inconvenience with Uncle Sam that it had been coerced into at gunpoint following 9/11, Islamabad effectively broke off whatever little cooperation it had been obliged to extend to the pathological sex offender. It was time for the Ugly American to pack his bags and go back to where he had come from. The United States was for once desperate. It still beseeched a less than dishonourable exit (of most but not all of its military presence) from Afghanistan. Pakistan obliged with the caveat that Washington would utilise it strategic partnership with New Delhi to arrive at a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir dispute. Kashmir, with Pakistans water lifeline of the Indus River System emanating overwhelmingly from the territory of the former Princely State under Indias illegitimate control, has become a concern of the States survival. India has persistently, albeit not surprisingly, been eating up Pakistans share as the lower riparian recipient of the Indus Water System allocated by the 1960 Treaty brokered by the United States. The large number of new projects it is currently working on upstream pose a real and present threat to Pakistan. If these schemes are made operable now, India would be in a position to remove the only physical obstacle in the way of launching a military assault to have a handle on the Pakistani Punjabs narrow waist: It could dry up the canals; most crucially, the Bambanwala Ravi Bedian (BRB) Link Canal to expose Lahore; this summer by storing more water in its planned reservoirs upstream. Pakistan has delivered on its word to the United States; it has let Uncle Sam take the purported trophy of Osamas head so that the formers espoused 'graceful exit can be materialised. We had gone to war in Afghanistan to take out the big bad guys; we have achieved the mission. Time for our brave soldiers to be reunited with their families Obama would declare triumphantly. Loud applause all across the United States of America. Obamas popularity graph has already started going up. The upcoming midterm Congressional elections are finally not such a big problem for the Democratic Party; the Presidents re-election next year also appears a less formidable challenge. What of India? New Delhi is squirming. Deliver it must. It would not be easy for the bloated self-image of 'Shining India that cannot feed well over its billion plus population to come to terms with the changed geostrategic realties. Then came the attack on the Karachi naval-cum-army base of Mehran on May 22, crippling Pakistans naval surveillance arm by destroying two P-3C Orion aircrafts; India and India alone has the motive for the cowardly crime. But then, what else is new in New Delhi? Meanwhile, China has, taking a break from its long held policy of not going public on diplomatic messages to India, clearly sounded an unmistakable warning for India to keep its hands off Pakistan. n The writer is a senior journalist currently working as project consultant/editor at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). The views expressed in this write-up are his alone. Email: ghanijafar@yahoo.co.uk