I would like to quote an extract of my article and many pressers wherein I had stated “America will never achieve peace in Afghanistan or Syria through its military might.” It is proven today when President Donald Trump found an excuse to get out of Afghanistan and Syria under the pressure of American public and strong resistance of American one-sided policies in Afghanistan. The “no more” stand of Pakistan to the persistent “do more” demand by America has been fruitful.

It looks as if history is repeating and we will once again be witnessing some more jolts in Afghanistan post the American exit from Afghanistan. The eye-wash dialogue started in 2010, wherein USA did not agree to withdraw the troops and continued to be in Afghanistan on various pretexts but eventually USA is withdrawing its military now out of its own sheer compulsion from Afghanistan and Syria.

I have seen various phases of the Afghan role and the changing policies of USA in the region and I remember that when I was Director FIA Peshawar Zone in 1993, I witnessed the transition of transfer of power to Afghan ‘Mujahedeen’ by America, where Burhan Uddin Rabbani was made President and Gulbadin Hekmatyar Prime Minister of Afghanistan. Pakistan played a key role with USA in installing the said fragile national government. The coalition government of Burhan Uddin Rabbani and Hekmatyar was bound to fail because Rabbani and Hekmatyar both were not on good terms. I had the chance to interact personally with both President Rabbani and PM Hekmatyar on one occasion where President Rabbani levelled serious charges on Hekmatyar of being an American agent and later when I met Hekmatyar he also graded President Rabbani as an American agent. In fact both were part of the American war against USSR in Afghanistan and led their respective Jihadist factions.

The serious differences between the two and tilt of Hekmatyar towards Osama Bin Laden ultimately resulted into emergence of another faction called Taliban and which further paved the way of creation of Northern Alliance to counter the Taliban. The Taliban were duly supported by the West including Pakistan and gradually the Taliban took over the control of Afghanistan and Mullah Umar emerged as a leader of not only Taliban but as a ruler sitting in Kandahar in a small hut but with an effective control on the entire Taliban. America withdrew from Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Soviet forces all of a sudden and the after effects are being experienced both in Afghanistan and Pakistan even today.

With the rising influence of Taliban in Afghanistan, the Head of the Northern Alliance Ahmed Shah Masood managed the support from America and used all Iranian bases for attacks on Taliban through the supply of arms and ammunition transported by a highly skilled Russian pilot namely Victor Bout, presently undergoing life imprisonment after his arrest in a sting operation in Thailand through his girlfriend. How Ahmed Shah was eliminated through a media team is also a history and will write one day on it.

I in my article “World power politics & CIA covert ops: will Pakistan remain a victim?” dated 5th August 2017, had stated that the American military solution policy is bound to fail and ultimately America will have to leave this region with “no post-withdrawal policy” leaving Afghanistan at the mercy of his own creation of a brand “Afro-Arab militants” residing in Afghanistan & Pakistan and this brand had already aligned themselves with TTP after the first withdrawal of USA.

I was wondering as to why the Americans have decided to leave now in 2018 and not back in 2015, so I have come up with the answer that it is our military strategy which has been adopted by our present Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Jadd Bajwa making America finally leave. I would term this strategy as “Bajwa doctrine” which was coined after the advent of Gen Qamar Bajwa as COAS who very openly announced and vocally stated his stand at all local and International forums. In fact, it was the right response to the “Indian Army cold doctrine” launched during the time of Manmohan Singh and fully put into gear by PM Modi, which was specifically directed at harming Pakistan. Under this doctrine, Pakistan witnessed a huge massacre of innocent Kashmiris, gross violations of LOC, interference in Baluchistan, launching of RAW network in Baluchistan & KPK via Afghanistan and Iran and diplomatic isolation of Pakistan worldwide. The arrest of RAW Agent Kulbhushan Yadav had evidently exposed Indian doctrine.

This is now fact that US demands of “do more” have been well countered and responded with “no more” narrative by Pakistan. Pakistan further has developed friendly defence ties with China and Russia making USA administration nervous as it clearly noticed that a nuclear troika of China, Russia and Pakistan is in making and its difficulties will increase and its defence ties with India will not be able to achieve its geo-political goals via Afghanistan. USA has finally decided to change its course of action and has been forced to concede before the Pak stance that let the Afghan peace process be owned & led by Afghanistan. This idea was promoted by Pakistan and we saw the shuttle defence diplomacy through number of visits of Gen Bajwa to Afghanistan and meeting with their Army chief and President Ashraf Ghani. In the meetings he ensured confidence and practical support to the Afghan Government and it has come to my knowledge through sources from Afghanistan that our Army and Intelligence agencies have given practical and on ground support to Afghan authorities in many operations against terrorists as well as their respective terrorist outfits. Resultantly, Afghan Government became more amenable to Pakistan for the first time recognising the stance of putting joint efforts against terrorism. It worked well in building CBMs (Confidence Building Measures) with Afghan Government and at its military level.

Time has proven that COAS’s silent diplomacy/ doctrine worked well in helping the present government on many fronts including the funds from Saudi Arabia and UAE. I think it will not be fair on account of the present Government to not publically recognise this great national service of Gen. Bajwa for the country. Let us also admit that the ray of hope for peace in Afghanistan and the exit of American army stand dedicated to Gen Bajwa and not to the diplomacy of foreign affairs but defence diplomacy through Bajwa doctrine.

Let me be more blunt in saying that “no to do more” played as magic that the Americans were left with no choice except to come to table with Afghan Taliban with the help of Pakistan defence elite.

Although the US troops are going back, it still looks that the America will continue to have military bases in Afghanistan as a part of their geo-political strategy. Therefore, I foresee that Afghanistan may continue to be in partlial trouble with the new national government before their elections and India will try its best to sabotage this peace process as disturbed Afghanistan is part of Indian cold doctrine and peaceful Afghanistan is Pakistan’s Bajwa doctrine.

This can be averted if both Afghanistan & Pakistan ensure the maximum presence of all factions to reach on a long term solution through a large participation of all factions of Taliban to reach a broad based written agreement.

The situation in coming months will continue to be confused, volatile for some time and may be prone to more terrorism. I also fear the influx of another wave of migration of refugees to Pakistan, which perhaps would be halted through the fence already erected as part of Bajwa doctrine. In the given situation, India will continue to play its indirect proxy war against Pakistan from Afghanistan and the various factions of Taliban are being foreseen to be empowered in Afghanistan by India, so it looks that if the history is repeating once again and religious groups in Afghanistan may again emerge with different alliance. I pray that Daesh, militant wings and pro-Indian factions of Government and Taliban not be part of this potential new coalition, which will be supported by India.

India is not happy as Bajwa doctrine has defeated India in Afghanistan and hence it will continue to create anti-Pak groups to use against Pakistan.

I must say thanks to our defence policy which has made the American might succumb to our “No do More” stand.

P.S. The views expressed in the article are purely mine and do not in any way represent the policy of my party.

 

The writer is Chairman of think tank “global eye” & former Interior Minister of Pakistan.

 rmalik1212@gmail .com

@GlobalEye_GSA